Manny Pacquiao vs Antonio Margarito Preview

Jason Karp previews tomorrow night's HBO PPV main-event between Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito.

Once a year, in what has become something of a custom in the sport's current post-Tyson, post-relevancy state, boxing cobbles together what's left of its fading cultural currency and stages an event that, if only for one night, reminds both the world and itself that it still has a significant role to play in the American sporting landscape.

On Saturday, Manny Pacquiao and Antonio Margarito will take centre stage in the latest edition of boxing's annual stand against irrelevancy, as the two men meet in Arlington, Texas, for a share of the junior middleweight crown.

For Pacquiao, it's a role he has become accustom to, having previously starred in boxing's centrepiece fight in 2008, against Oscar de la Hoya, and again in 2009, against Miguel Cotto. Since then, the Filipino has only grown in stature as a public figure, adding the titles of Congressman, movie star, and recording artist alongside his designation as boxing's undisputed flag bearer.

For Margarito, the occasion is far less perfunctory. When the Tijuana-born fighter takes his place in the ring Saturday night as part of boxing's prize offering of 2010, he will have completed a journey that, depending on where you stand, is either a shining testament to the redemptive power of sanctioned hand-to-hand combat, or a damning indictment of its moral bankruptcy.

Criticisms of Saturday's fight don't come lightly, nor should they. As boxing's banner fight for 2010, Pacquiao-Margarito will go a long way to shaping the public's already tarnished perception of the sport. For proof of this, look no further than 2007's mega-fight between Oscar de la Hoya and Floyd Mayweather. Almost four years on, and common is the casual fan who cites the pedestrian affair as proof of boxing's lacklustre appeal. And for as pitiful an exhibition as "The World Awaits" was, it carried none of the moral baggage the fight at hand does.

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As divisive as this bout has proven to be, and for all the ink spilled on both sides of the fence, the final word will inevitably be had by the two combatants come Saturday night. Ultimately, it will be the quality of the fight that will carry the most weight in dictating how history views Pacquiao-Margarito going forward.

On paper, a dominant, protracted Pacquiao victory, in the same vein as his recent wins over Joshua Clottey and Miguel Cotto, seems imminent. But what makes such a projection tenuous is the large number of variables at play.

On Margarito's side, no factor casts a larger shadow over the Mexican's body of work than the question of his illegal hand wraps. On how many occasions did Margarito enter the ring with the aid of loaded gloves? What advantage, if any, did those illegal aids grant him? The question is especially pertinent in Margarito's case, for whom consistent power applied to the body and head has always been a central facet to his high-pressure offensive style. And still other questions remain. What effect might Margarito's one-year forced layoff have on his ability to fight up to his previous standards? Was ten rounds against Roberto Garcia enough to offset that effect? Finally, how has Margarito's body, specifically his chin, weathered the punishment absorbed over twenty gruelling rounds with both Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto?

The position one takes on these questions is likely to go a long way in determining how one sees Saturday's fight playing out. A survey of some of the boxing community's highly trafficked blogs and discussion forums reveals a consensus that is skeptical of Margarito's ability to fight at the level that yielded him two violent, definitive stoppage victories over Miguel Cotto and Kermit Cintron in 2008, a sentiment bolstered by suspicions regarding the circumstances under which those wins were attained.

Should conventional wisdom prove incorrect, however, and the variables seen widely as spelling Margarito's downfall prove to swing in favour of the much maligned Mexican, where, then, does that leave the matter of Saturday's match up?

In quite a new light, one would think. After all, it was Margarito's name that was first to be scratched off the list of prospective opponents following Manny Pacquiao's victory over Oscar de la Hoya in December of 2008. Too big, too strong was the prevailing view, an opinion echoed by, among others, Freddie Roach.

Of course, the Manny Pacquiao of twenty-three months ago, when the prospect of a Pacquiao-Margarito showdown was first tossed around, was a different fighter from the one we know today. In his three fights since his meeting with de la Hoya, Pacquiao's contracted weights have stayed fairly constant, moving no higher than the 147 pound limit stipulated for the Joshua Clottey fight. In that time, however, Pacquiao has slowly acclimated himself to the 147 weight bracket. Whereas Pacquiao checked in at an even 142 pounds for the de la Hoya encounter, against Clottey, Pacquiao weighed in at 145 ½ pounds, his highest weight yet. Sporting increased muscle and a bulkier frame, Manny looked every bit as quick as the fighter who stepped in against the Golden Boy a year and a half earlier. Along with his customary speed, Pacquiao also displayed concussive power and, more surprisingly, reinforced resilience, a combination made most apparent against Miguel Cotto.

Assuming both fighters enter the ring Saturday night at their physical peaks, the outcome is then left to a question of styles.

In Margarito, Pacquiao will be facing his largest foe yet, not counting the emaciated de la Hoya. While Pacquiao's increased mass should equip him with enough power to keep Margarito honest, it's unlikely he has the pure strength necessary to wrestle Margarito in tight, an essential tool to stemming Margarito's suffocating forward momentum, as executed by Shane Mosley in his January 2009 contest with Antonio. This could leave Pacquiao in somewhat of a perilous position, whereby he may be forced to fight off his front foot in an attempt evade incoming attacks, a strategy that proved fatal for Miguel Cotto in his encounter with the Tijuana Tornado.

Should Pacquiao rely on his foot speed to create space, as he's expected to do, he will need to find some way to create cover for his side-to-side, in-and-out attack. As Miguel Cotto would attest, power and accuracy to the head is not enough. For Pacquiao, this is where volume comes in.

Against Joshua Clottey, Pacquiao threw on average 102.5 punches per round, burying his traditionally passive opponent under an avalanche of rights and lefts, snuffing out any and all opportunities for countering. Of course, in Margarito, Pacquiao will be facing an opponent without any of Clottey's reservations for letting his hands go. Nonetheless, Margarito's history against another high-volume southpaw, Paul Williams, suggests that a similar strategy could be just as effective come Saturday night.

In his 2007 bout with Margarito, Williams peppered Margarito with a constant barrage of punches, pumping out offence to the tune of 104.7 punches a round, a figure resembling that put up by Pacquiao against Clottey. In the face of this barrage, Margarito was limited to only 54.3 punches a round, a figure well below his typical output of 101.4.

Nonetheless, even while operating under a neutered volume of punches, Margarito will still pose a more immediate threat than Clottey, opting to walk the Filipino down and trade with him rather than retreat behind a high guard and wait for an opportunity to attack. What's more, even in the face of an opponent as passive as Clottey, Pacquiao still absorbed enough punishment to leave his face visibly bruised and swollen at the end of the night. It should be taken as a sign of encouragement in the Margarito camp that the typically feather-fisted Clottey was able to do as much damage as he did behind a limited attack. Should Margarito's power prove to be a reasonable facsimile of the type of output he displayed against Cotto, the energy reserve Pacquiao was able to tap into in the later rounds against Clottey may be found to be wanting down the stretch against Margarito.

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