Can Bernard Hopkins Defy The Odds Once Again?

Bernard Hopkins is, in my opinion, the best fighter of the last 15 years. With all due respect to Mr. Pacquiao and Mr. Mayweather, I don't think they are quite as complete a puglisitic package as "The Executioner" has been throughout his often inspirational career. No matter how great the fighter, one can usually point out a weakness, but I have a real hard time finding it when it comes to the Philadelphian fighting legend. I also can't favour any of the great middleweights against him in the ring with confidence. During his prime, he had it all. Now significantly past those days, he's still skilled enough to beat top fighters, or at the very least, make them look ordinary.

All that said, this fight marks the first time I'm picking against the old man. Well, kinda...

Old champions can still do plenty of damage if given the right style match-up. While Pascal's lack of activity can be seen as a plus for an ancient warhorse, he has certain attributes that have driven old guys crazy in the past. Speed and movement stand out, but he's also a rough customer in the clinch, an area Hops has always been able to fall back on when things weren't going exactly according to plan.

I think it's clear that Bernard could still look great vs a slower, plodding type, who is there to be the aggressor. He could beat up on Kelly Pavlik until he's 60.

Pascal is the opposite of that. He's fast as a bullet, relatively careful and most important... he uses a LOT of lateral movement. It's really hard to pin a guy down when he's moving to the side all night. Especially when you're relying on 46 year old legs.

I sat through Hopkins-Jones 2 again (that's dedication, baby!) in order to see what was left of the former middleweight champ. The defense is certainly still in tact. I can barely recall Jones landing a punch. The boxing brain is still there, too, as he was able to exploit his opponent's moving straight back every time he advanced. He knew he could get Roy to the ropes whenever he wanted. And he was also able to punish Roy in the clinch with body shots and dirty stuff.

I assume he'll want to do the same type of thing vs Pascal. However, that is very hard to do against a fighter who is always on the move. Hopkins is going to have a very hard time keeping up, if he decides to pressure, and he won't be able to put his man on the ropes consistently, because the young champion doesn't just move backward to get out of the way.

That doesn't mean there aren't a few things the future Hall of Famer and his trainer, Brother Naazim Richardson, can't take advantage of.

If Bernard is too old to apply pressure for 12 (I don't think it's in his best interest anyway), he has to work his feints overtime. That's the best way to control a fighter who only wants to fight when he's comfortable. He can't make him react by being on him all the time, but he can trick him into making a move by feinting with his hands and feet.

Another thing I have noticed about Pascal is that he has a tendency to clam up on defense, mostly when he's a bit gassed. Miguel Cotto and Amir Khan are similar in that way. Instead of using a real defense, they'll just hold their hands high, bury the chin, and hope for the best, while standing completely still. It's unlikely that Hopkins can make him pay a heavy price, in terms of power punching, but he can score points if he can get his man to hold still for a minute.

As for Pascal, he's just got to do what he does and hope it's enough. I think he'll have to execute a plan similar to the one he brought into the ring vs Chad Dawson. In that fight he had to just take what he could get. In terms of clean punching, he couldn't get a lot accomlished, but he kept at it, and wound up with the belt.

It's gonna be another one of those nights where he has to be content to land a half a punch every now and again. Luckily for him, the Quebec fight fans will go bonkers every time the breeze from one of his shots makes Hopkins blink.

And that's pretty much what the result comes down to for me. Even if you really like the old man's chances, it's very difficult to have any faith that he'll get a fair shake. And since there will probably be many close rounds where not a lot is happening, the judges will have plenty of room to do what they do so often.

My official pick is Pascal by unanimous decision, in a fight that some see as a draw. It's not the kind of fight you invite your casual boxing fan friends over to check out. The combat will be more interesting than amazing, that's for sure. But these guys are so different in so many ways that I just want to see what happens when they mix it up.

Has Hopkins finally miscalculated, or does he know something we don't?

e-mail Lee Payton

Poll

What's your pick in tonight's Light-Heavyweight Championship bout?

9%

Pascal by stoppage

6 votes

20%

Pascal by comfortable decision

13 votes

17%

Pascal in a close one

11 votes

0%

Too close to call / Draw

0 votes

22%

Hopkins in a close one

14 votes

15%

Hopkins by comfortable decision

10 votes

14%

Hopkins by stoppage

9 votes

63 votes | Poll has closed