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Carlos Acevedo previews Saturday night's HBO main-event featuring Kelly Pavlik vs Sergio Martinez.  For more from Carlos, check out his blog, The Cruelest Sport.

Kelly Pavlik looks to storm the Big Time again when he meets whirlwind Sergio Martinez tomorrow night at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City in a fight that promises to be a humdinger.

Pavlik, whose annus miserabilis of 2009 became a cyberspace soap opera, enters the ring as a slight favorite over Martinez, perhaps because Martinez is viewed as a blown-up junior middleweight.

If recent form is any indication, Martinez, 44-2-2 (24), may have the edge entering the bout. His last two opponents, Paul Williams and Kermit Cintron, easily outstrip the not-so dynamic duo of Miguel Espino and Marco Antonio Rubio, both part of the recent Kelly Pavlik Stress Management Tour.

In addition, before being embarrassed by Bernard Hopkins in 2008, Pavlik battered hapless Gary Lockett over three rounds in one of the worst HBO matchups in history. In other words, Pavlik, 28, has not seen much positive action over the last two years. In 2009 Pavlik withdrew from fights with Sergio Mora and, most infamously, left Paul Williams out to dry twice. Pavilk also reportedly turned down a $1 million paycheck to face Felix Sturm.

A staph infection caused most of the trouble, but some have seen his non-maneuvers as evidence of a brittle mindset. So, perhaps this bout hinges on whether or not he is "fight ready" for Martinez. Pavlik also seems stigmatized by his dreadful showing --at a catchweight of 170 pounds--against Hopkins. Again and again Hopkins beat Pavlik to the punch, outmaneuvered him at every turn, and taunted him with that special brand of Hopkins glee. Against Hopkins, Pavlik, 36-1 (32), was more Sir Simon than any malevolent "Ghost," and it might be the memory of this disappointing performance that gives Martinez backers confidence. After all, Martinez is also a shifty boxer--faster than Hopkins, in fact--and a southpaw to boot.

After making a name for himself in the U.K. by defeating Richard Williams and Adrian Stone, Martinez returned to Spain and plied his trade in a fistic limbo for nearly two years before looking to the U.S. for bigger fights. Since then, Martinez has beaten Saul Roman and Alex Bunema, was unlucky to earn a draw with Kermit Cintron, and went toe-to-toe with Paul Williams in a spectacular brawl last December.

Early in his career Martinez, Madrid via Buenos Aires, was steamrolled by Antonio Margarito in seven rounds, but that was his only stoppage loss and it took place at welterweight over a decade ago. It remains to be seen whether Martinez can take punishment from a hardpunching natural middleweight like Pavlik. With a crushing right hand, thrown arrow-straight from the shoulder, and a sharp left hook in his arsenal, Pavlik, Youngstown, Ohio, is as dangerous an offensive threat as any fighter in boxing. Add an uppercut and a stiff jab into the mix, and facing a ready Pavlik is like staggering blind drunk into an apiary.

Martinez, whose southpaw style is predicated on speed and footwork, has very little margin of error against Pavlik. Against Williams, Martinez showed a willingness to rough it on the inside, but there is no DMZ when fighting Pavlik. On the outside, Pavlik snaps his jab and drops his wrecking ball right; in close, left hooks and uppercuts become serious threats.

Judging from his dramatic slugfest with Williams, Martinez has plenty of substance to go along with his style. "Maravilla" rose from a first round knockdown to return the favor almost instantly, dramatically toppling Williams with a vicious right hook before the bell sounded. But he will most likely look to box from the perimeter and score points while Pavlik tries to walk him down. "I'm going to have to work my hardest and definitely use my speed to confuse him," Martinez told Lem Satterfield of Fanhouse.com. "I'm going to confuse the hell out of him and make him pay for his mistakes. That's something that I'm going to have to consistently continue to do to win the fight. And when he's missing, that's where I'll go to work.

It is easy to imagine Martinez, 35, ahead on the scorecards early, keeping Pavlik off-balance with his fast hands and southpaw moves. Still, it will only take one blow from Pavlik-- who punches hard with either hand--to send Martinez back to Madrid asking himself, sorrowfully, "What happened?" over a Tinto de Verano. And Martinez is the kind of lefty who fights with his hands dangling at his sides, counting on his speed and reflexes to avoid blows. "Southpaws that move are tough; don’t get me wrong. But, at the same time, they’re not tough," Pavlik told Steve Kim at Maxboxing.com. "I mean, they’re off-balance, like Sergio Martinez. He’s a dangerous fighter, but he leaves himself wide open, too. We’ve seen it against Margarito; we’ve seen it against Paul Williams; he gets hit."

At over 6’2", Pavlik has a decided advantage in size and will try to assert it from the opening bell. Comparisons have been made between Pavilk and Paul Williams, but Williams is not nearly the puncher that Pavlik is and it is this difference that may decide the fight. For Martinez to win, he will have to be nearly flawless for 36 minutes. He has the skills to score the upset, but can his chin hold up to big shots from Pavlik? The answer to that question will determine who leaves Boardwalk Hall tomorrow night with superstar status within reach.

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