Antonio Margarito / Photo © Ray Kasprowicz

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by Lee Payton

You don't like it. I don't like it. But Manny Pacquiao vs Antonio Margarito is happening. Bob Arum's chosen Margarito as he feels the bout will be perceived as more competitive than the Cotto option. Maybe so, but does Margarito have a real chance? Let's break this one down...

Margarito does have a couple advantages over Pacquiao, but will they mean anything once the bell rings?

One thing the Mexican has going for him is his size. He will dwarf Manny in there. Surely, he will also be the stronger of the two and will probably be able to deal with the hundreds of punches he's going to take, so he should be able to stick around, maximizing his opportunity.

For his advantages to become significant in the fight he's going to have to walk through everything Pacquiao throws and force him to hit the ropes for a breather. He doesn't have a prayer in the middle of the ring. If he can get Manny to sit still for a second he has a chance to land something big.

And that's exactly what Tony must do. He won't have the time to wear his man down this time because he's not going to land very often, if at all. Every punch he throws has to be delivered with full force or else all hope is gone. He is the biggest man and perhaps the biggest puncher Pacquiao has ever faced so it's not impossible for him to land a fight changer.

Margarito and his people probably need to accept that he's no longer in his prime and isn't going to just overwhelm quality fighters. They should forget about throwing 100 punches a round because this opponent isn't going to be there for any of them. Instead, the focus should be on power punching. If he is going to do something great he'll need to adjust for his age and really sit down on every shot.

There will be those who question if that power was legit or not, and that's valid. Though I do think his power punching form shows that he is indeed a fighter who punches through the target, so it's up in the air as far as I'm concerned. For his best shots to have full effect on Manny they'd have to be shorter and faster, and that kind of improvement isn't going to happen at this stage. When you consider the fact that Pacquiao took clean punches from Cotto and Clottey, some of which he never saw coming, an upset seems near impossible. Margarito has never thrown a punch that the opponent didn't see coming.

As is usually the case, Margarito will be the hunter in this fight, so he will have to pump the jab and cut off the ring in order to catch up to his speedy opponent. Has he ever done those things well? Not really. Footwork has never been is strength. Even at his best he would follow opponents, always a step behind. This time it will be more like 2 or 3 steps. I expect Manny to move laterally, as he did against De La Hoya, and walk Tony into punches all night.

Here's a question I've asked before all of Manny's welterweight fights- how is he going to miss?

At this point, Margarito is a big punching bag and Pacquiao will treat him like one for as long as it lasts.

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On another note related to the fight, there are rumors that the vacant WBC belt will be on the line.  I did a quick check of the WBC and WBA rankings at jr middleweight. Guess who the #1 contender is according to both sanctioning bodies?  Antonio Margarito.  Despite not having to beat a single world class opponent, Margarito slips in at #1. Amazing how that works, isn't it?

If that isn't bogus enough, I'm sure a catch weight will be thrown in for good measure.

Isn't boxing great? The best fighter in the world is fighting a suspended opponent who doesn't have a chance, for an illegitimate title... on Pay-Per-View.

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