Juan Manuel Marquez vs Juan Diaz Preview

By Lee Payton

World Lightweight Champion Juan Manuel Marquez knocked out Juan Diaz in the 9th round of a back and forth war last year. Since then the champ has been beaten like never before. The challenger hasn't been able to find his groove either. Still, these two made for such fierce combat the first time around, it looks like a match made in fistic heaven stylistically. We know they're going to tear into each other again, but I find this match-up especially compelling and difficult to call because of what has changed.

I wish there were more rematches in boxing. Apart from giving the fighters more opportunity to prove themselves, return bouts demonstrate just how important timing is in this sport. I'm often stunned at how many fans assume the winner of the first one would come out on top every time. Things are a little different now than when they first hooked up, and while I'm expecting another thriller, I wouldn't be surprised if the younger man came out on top this time around.

It's difficult to get past the fact that Diaz not only lost to Paulie Malignaggi at least once, he was even wobbled in the rematch by a guy who doesn't hurt anyone. Marquez put him away rather violently with his accurate combination power punching. It would make perfect sense if the first meeting left fractures in his ability to take the kind of punishment that he was dealt the first time.

I'm not too worried about the losses to Malignaggi and don't think they mean a whole lot going into this fight. The Baby Bull was up against a quick, mostly negative opponent who did everything he could to stay out of harm's way. Marquez will be right in the thick of things all night, trying to put him to sleep once again.

Technically, there are some things Diaz can do to give himself a better chance to get his revenge. In an interview with Fightnews.com, he said he was working on keeping from squaring up in front of perhaps the most educated fists in the game. That sounds like a good plan. He did enjoy success stepping in with the jab as well as his sweeping left hook, two punches actually befuddled the master. They should still be there.

Physically, Diaz probably has to slow it down just a notch and hope that it'll be alright. He's no kid anymore, himself. At 27, he should be stronger than ever and I wouldn't be surprised if his "man strength" was the deciding difference from last year. It was Fight of the Year because the challenger forced greatness out of the champion and I expect him to do it again, win or lose.

My big concerns for Marquez revolve around his age. There have been very, very few 36 year old lightweights who could still win on the top level. History is not on his side, here. What he's done in his 30's is quite remarkable (should get him into the Hall), but he's overdue for a noticeable drop-off, isn't he? Surely, the punishment he's taken during that time hasn't helped him any. Those were the best fighters around tagging him. I have to assume he'll be at least a little slower than he was the first time around, and if he is, the power will suffer.

Before the first fight I thought Diaz' aggression would bring out the best of Marquez, and the same will probably be true tonight. I just don't know if the best of what's left will be enough.

It's a very tough call, but I'm leaning towards Juan Diaz to pull the upset by split or majority decision. I think he may be the stronger man in there tonight . It just comes down to age and where I think Marquez' legs may be at this stage. They've looked increasingly stiff over his last few fights, in my opinion, whereas Diaz should be enjoying his physical prime. I'll take the younger man to hang on down the stretch for a close decision win in another classic.

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