Wladimir Klitschko vs Samuel Peter Preview

The main event of the first live boxing event I ever attended was Wladimir Klitschko vs Samuel Peter, which took place on September 24 2005, in Atlantic City, New Jersey. It was the first time I had ever been to the United States and also the first time I felt worried in a public place. The venue was Boardwalk Hall. I'll never forget being frisked by a large fellow upon entering the venue. They don't feel your pockets before Blue Jays games...

As luck would have it, a young Miguel Cotto was locked into an unexpected scorcher with undefeated replacement opponent, Ricardo Torres. Hurt a few times and floored once, Cotto came back to stop his foe in an incredible show of self-belief that would become typical.

During that match I became so excited that a Puerto Rican lady, with a rather large group of passionate Cotto fans, advised me to sit down with a suggestive shove to the shoulder. So she and her party could see, I assume.

The most international of crowds filled the arena that night. Flags from Colombia, Puerto Rico, Ukraine and Nigeria could be spotted from any seat. There were a few altercations between the rival spectators, one that took place only a few feet from where I was seated, but for the most part it was a good natured crowd there to enjoy an entertaining card of boxing.

Klitschko won a unanimous decision victory that night, keeping the big man relevant among contenders of the day. Though perhaps only one was legitimate, he was given credit for surviving 3 official knock downs. A lack of durability had shown in losses before that and many, including myself, had picked Peter by knockout for that reason.

Since then little brother Klitschko has gone 9-0 (8) and Peter 10-2 (7). Wlad has fought top competition (well... kinda) and Sam has lost to older brother Vitali Klitschko and Eddie Chambers. Chambers was then dominated and knocked out by Wladimir.

The odds are long for the Nigerian, so what does he have to do to win this time? Does he have a chance?

Let’s take a look at what each fighter brings to the match-up…

Samuel Peter

The Positives…

• Very strong. Given Klitschko’s proclivity for clinching, Peter might have opportunities to use that strength and rough the bigger man up.
• Heavy handed. While not the most technically proficient, his hard swings really pack a wallop.
• Long arms for his height can be a surprise to opponents. He throws a decent left hook from range.
• Despite facing a string of lower level opponents in recent bouts, Peter has shown some real dedication to coming in shape. Weights of 243, 239, 240 ½ and 237 ½ indicate a fighter that’s finally making a commitment to the type of conditioning needed to succeed against the best.
• He usually fires right back when tagged, and he’ll put his foot on the pedal when he has an opponent hurt.

The Negatives…

• He’s slow. When it comes to hand and foot speed, Peter is definitely lacking.
• Despite his strength, he doesn't let his hand go on the inside enough. He also never managed to force Klitschko to the ropes in the first meeting, an area that would be advantageous to his strengths.
• He can be too patient, and doesn’t consistently attack unless he has his opponent hurt. This could allow Klitschko to dictate the pace of the bout in a comfortable manner, which is something Peter can’t really afford to let happen.
• Keeps his left hand low, and can’t avoid straight punches. He’s not hard to find in there, and that’s a big problem against an opponent that throws with the kind of power Klitschko has.
• He’s predictable in his movement and spends way too much time on the outside – an area that he should obviously avoid against Klistchko.
• Late round stamina is questionable.
• Peter doesn't appear to be as durable as he was when the fighters met the first time. He took some huge shots back in 2005, while showing little effect. Since then we’ve seen him dropped by Jameel McCline, hurt by Oleg Maskaev and stopped on his stool by Vitali. Can he still take heavy punishment in order to land his own artillery?
• Can't fight at all when the opponent moves toward his left hand.

Wladimir Klitschko

The Positives…

• Comes in great shape every time. That’s a given for 95% of fighters below heavyweight, but a rarity these days among the big men.
• Very well trained. He clearly is at a point where he fully understands his strengths and weaknesses and fights accordingly. He’s going to take what’s given to him, rather than force the issue.
• Punishing jab. How’s Peter going to avoid it?
• Short, straight delivery equals max power on the right hand.  Again... how is Peter going to avoid it?
  
• Held his right high the first time...can do it again.

The Negatives…

• Durability. He’s been racking up the wins, but his opponents have lacked the kind of power Peter brings to the table. Klitschko can be hurt, and will be in with a fighter more than capable of doing damage.
• He won't commit to throwing with power for rounds at a time. A puncher like Peter is always dangerous and anything can happen if Klitschko fights too cautiously and lets him stick around into the late going.
• He’s starting to get up there in years. While 34 is not old by today’s heavyweights standards, it’s an age when the legs start to go a little. Klitschko used his legs in the first meeting to set a comfortable range and stay out of trouble. If he doesn’t have the same mobility this time out and is forced to stand his ground more, Peter could have plenty of chances to land a fight changing punch.
• Looks to hold way too much. We saw what happened to Joachim Alcine when he tried to hold Alfredo Angulo on the inside. Peter has the strength to do that kind of damage with chopping shots – although given the location of the fight and tendencies of today’s referees, those opportunities might be taken away by an over officious third man.
  

All things considered...

Klitschko showed control for most of the fight last time, though much of the time it was with swift movement, which I'm not sure he'll be able to duplicate 5 years later. If he was able to move for twelve rounds last time, I think he'll do it for something closer to 6 this time around. The difference doesn't come from damage sustained during that time, but more from what could be a difference in vitality from 29 to 34. I suspect the legs will be a little heavier.

That should mean that there will be more holding in the sequel, which is interesting to me. One could argue for either fighter in the clinch. First of all, it's the only place Peter has a chance to land significant punches in the fight, since he's totally hopeless against his 6'6 opponent from distance. At the same time however, one could also point out that the taller man was able to control the clinches about 80% of the time in the first fight. Of course, he had help from the ref, and should be able to count on the same kind of assistance this time, as well.

One major flaw I see in Sam Peter's style is that he seems to believe that he needs a ton of space to let his hands go. That's a shame because you are not going to find a stronger heavyweight out there. Klitschko is not equipped to deal with a guy like that in close so he shouldn't waste time at range. How would Klitschko react if Peter ripped into his body during one of the 100 clinches we are sure to see if it goes twelve? My guess is he would fall apart.

While I would not be surprised to see Wlad on the floor, I think he'll win the fight by a clear unanimous decision or late TKO. That said, it will probably be his biggest challenge since the first time they fought.

My pick: Klitschko by 9-3 type scores or possible late stoppage.

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